Two numbers and a date range are enough: see your real monthly growth rate and where it lands you in 3, 6 and 12 months if the pace holds.
| Growth over the period | — |
|---|---|
| Projected in 3 months | — |
| Projected in 6 months | — |
| Projected in 12 months | — |
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Growth is relative to size — percentages that are trivial for a new account are exceptional at scale. Typical monthly compound rates for healthy, organically growing accounts:
| Account size | Solid | Excellent |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10k | 5 – 10% / month | over 15% |
| 10k – 100k | 3 – 8% / month | over 10% |
| 100k – 1M | 1 – 4% / month | over 6% |
| 1M+ | 0.5 – 2% / month | over 3% |
TikTok typically runs at the top of each range (For You distribution), Instagram and YouTube in the middle, X at the bottom. Sustained rates above these bands usually mean a viral moment — enjoy it, but project from the months around it, not from the spike. Checking engagement too? See the 2026 engagement rate benchmarks.
The calculator converts your observed growth into a compound monthly rate — (now ÷ start) raised to the power of 30 ÷ days, minus 1 — and then compounds it forward. Compounding matters: 5% monthly growth doesn't add 60% in a year, it adds 80%, because each month grows on top of the last.
Sustained organic growth of 2–5% per month is solid for an established account; early accounts and accounts riding a viral format can run far hotter, but rarely for long. Treat a projection as a trajectory, not a promise — one format change or algorithm shift resets the curve. The useful signal is the trend across months, which is why measuring from a single screenshot-to-screenshot pair is worth doing regularly.
The weakness of any calculator is that you need yesterday's number, and platforms only show you today's. SocialGuardian records your follower count with every daily backup, so you get the whole history as a chart — including the day that spike happened and which post caused it.
Most apps report simple growth over a fixed window (new followers ÷ starting followers). This calculator reports a compound monthly rate normalised from whatever period you give it, so different windows become comparable. Same data, different lens.
Small dips are usually platform cleanups removing bot accounts — they improve your engagement rate even as the count drops. Worry about sustained decline across weeks, not single-day steps.
No. Purchased followers don't engage, which drags your engagement rate down, which tells the algorithm to show your posts to fewer real people. Every metric that matters gets worse.
Monthly is enough for decisions; daily is better for diagnosis, because it ties changes to specific posts. Automatic daily tracking beats both — you can't forget to do it.
SocialGuardian records it daily with your backup and draws the chart for you — for every account you protect.
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